A WELL ORGANISED SECRETARIAT WILL BOOST THE YES VOTE

On Friday, the Synovate group released a poll indicating that the yes side had lost seven points since the last opinion poll was conducted. Being part and parcel of the national yes campaign team, I can authoritatively point out the reasons as to why we have had our side fluctuate from 64 percent approval in the previous poll to the recently announced 57 percent. There is no doubt that both the president and the prime minister have shown their undying support of the document. This is possibly the reason why majority of Kenyans are in support of the document. The political goodwill from the president and the prime minister might be one of the main factors that will help us in mobilizing the vote that will eventually have us succeed in what has been so elusive in the last two decades. However there are a number of loopholes in the campaign that if they are addressed urgently, Kenyans will get an opportunity to know the importance of passing the proposed constitution overwhelmingly. The make or break point for the yes campaign lies heavily on the role that will be played by the yes campaign secretariat before and during the referendum campaigns. It’s easy too to attribute the maintained lead to a section of the leadership of the secretariat and still attribute the fluctuation to a section of the secretariat leadership. The secretariat leadership has raised the issue of lack of funds whenever confronted with a question on why the campaigns are being done haphazardly. It’s however unjustifiable since both the PNU side and the ODM side of the coalition are facing the same predicament in respect to lack of availability of funds. Lack of funds is not a justification for being disorganized. With these challenges, the ODM side of the secretariat appears to have stronger leadership organized, well structured and ready for the campaigns, while the PNU side seems to lack leadership at the secretariat. unlike ms Janet Ong’era who is hands on and in charge of running affairs procedurally, Prof Peter Kagwanja who happens to lead the PNU side seems to understand more on political theory than organizing real political exercises like the referendum we are heading towards. there is no doubt that most of the people appointed to the secretariat are competent enough to execute the duties concerning the referendum campaigns, but under Prof Kagwanja’s leadership, it will be hard to maximize the potential of reaching out to the; yes’ prospective voters .Prof kagwanja is an accomplished scholar with great research works to his name. However his current task seems to be greater than or out of the scope of his understanding and thus it might be difficult for him to deliver. The PNU side of the secretariat appears disorderly and Prof Kagwanja himself is rarely in the office. One outcome of such disorganization came when the ODM side organized a youth press conference where PNU affiliate parties were poorly represented. It emerged that Prof Kagwanja was either unaware or had failed to get in touch with PNU affiliate youth leaders for the function. The few of us who attended the press conference were ambushed at the last minute and by the time we were joining the press conference, we had no idea of what the statement contained. It’s alleged that Prof Kagwanja is now silently planning to plant people of his own choice to head different departments, ignoring the names of political party leaders seconded by respective party leaderships of respective PNU affiliate parties. It’s no secret that it will be foolhardy to campaign without putting the youth vote a serious priority. It’s obvious that the youth vote will decide the margin by which the proposed constitution will be approved by Kenyans. Having been out of the country for a while, Prof Kagwanja has been absent from the Kenyan political scene and may not be in a good position to tap the right political manpower for the purpose of the referendum. The referendum campaign needs to be run by someone who is well acquainted with the Kenyan political affairs in the recent past and in present. The ODM side appeared to have noted this fact in advance and that is why they appointed someone who apart from other qualities understands Kenyan politics. In most cases Prof Kagwanja is always having meetings out of the office or too busy that very significant matters are either left unattended to or handled by his ODM co-director. There is no doubt that soon, there will be complains, as it has been before that ODM is running away with the yes campaign and yet the truth of the matter is that we have a politically incompetent person leading the PNU side of the secretariat. I am optimistic that YES will win, but in a referendum like the august 4th one, it’s important to marshal enough support from the majority of Kenyans as targeted by the political leadership of the yes campaign. The 10 million vote target is attainable, but the target might be elusive if the secretariat directorship on the PNU side is not changed. Fwamba NC Fwamba The writer is NEC member of New Ford Kenya, New Ford Kenya is a PNU affiliate party in the grand coalition government The ideas expressed are personal and do not necessarily reflect the party position

POLLSTERS ATTRACT ODIUM USUALLY RESERVED FOR FALSE PROPHETS.

If credibility is defined as believability, then at the moment, credibility is the most of the worries that the pollsters must content with. Pollsters have attracted the odium usually reserved for prophets. Each faction contesting the up coming constitutional referendum believes it has what it takes to effect the biggest surprise of the election that will confound pollsters and pundits alike by winning the referendum by margins far much bigger than the pollsters` current estimates. Much as I wish to dismiss such sentiments, I think that it is imprudent that we do not succumb to the dark impulses that lurk in the works of the pollsters lest we fall in the worst possible faux pas. Experience has over time shown that polls unwittingly or otherwise overestimate or underestimate the strength of the parties contesting in an election. Take the 1948 and 1992 elections of the United States of America as examples. Pollsters either greatly underestimated or overestimated the candidates` margins of victory. It is such inaccuracies in estimation that made people begin to cast shadows on the credibility of opinion polls. To begin with the sampling procedures as well as inconsistent sample sizes have led to variations in results. Secondly, even if the basic poll data are valid, analyses of the data is at times too casual and quite superficial. In some instances, the raw data are simply presented as the public's “opinion” without deep and careful analysis to probe nuance and possible bias. Bias may be manifested in the manner in which the pollster constructs questions to measure the respondent`s responses. It will for instance be unsurprising if the percentage of the public in favor of “forbidding” hate speech were found to be lower than the percentage in favor of “not allowing” hate speech. From the foregoing, a pollster`s question can significantly alter an individual`s measured response. In addition, results may be correct at the time they are collected, but as we all know, a day in politics is such a long time. Estimates are unlikely to be inconclusive since the vote can shift at the last moment. The most stinging criticism is however leveled at the polls` appropriateness level. Such polls have been known to influence voters to favor a faction that seems to be enjoying a notable popularity at the time. The information that a certain faction is far ahead in the polls may discourage voters from voting at all or encourage them to vote for that particular faction that is enjoying a roller-coaster courtesy of the pollster thus affecting the results of the election. It is for this reason that I agree with those who are of the opinion that legislation be put in place to bar opinion polls from being conducted two months to the election date. This will ensure a free and fair election. TOME FRANCIS, BUMULA. http://twitter.com/tomefrancis