KIBAKI TEAM SHOULD NOT CELEBRATE ODM-KENYA DISINTEGRATION:FWAMBA NC FWAMBA

Sometime last month I wrote in this column that ODM -Kenya unity will never be realized due to the lacking of a common ideology among the leaders apart from their thirst for power, greed, hypocricy and selfish ambitions. The latest developments within the party indicate that I wasn’t far from right. It’s so much of conspicuous evidence that these leaders have nothing substantial to offer Kenyans. It’s just a bunch of politicians driven by blind ambitions with theoretical visions seeking to reside at state house. Some of these politicians are finding it difficult to cope with each others ways of politicking due to their political backgrounds. While Raila’s background is associated with what some may refer to as socialism or communism, the rest of ODM-K candidates are products of the former oppressive KANU regime. Thus above all there lies an ideological conflict between the chief government critic Raila Odinga and the kanulets.That could be the main borne of contention in ODM-K.While Raila Odinga happens to be admired by even those people who oppose him in public due to his charisma the rest happen to attract mercies of people associated or related to kanu a party that was at the helm of power for four decades since independence. Many foes and friends alike regard Raila as one of Africa’s 21st century Fidel Castro or Hugo Chavez. Such a presidency is one that the analogical Railaphobics who include his fellow ODM luminaries dread. For Railamaniacs and anti-Kanu dynasty crusaders that (Raila presidency) will be regarded as a great gift to Kenya. For that reason I still believe that even with ODM-K disintegrating, Raila remains the greatest threat to President Kibaki’s re-election than any other candidate. If elected, crusaders of change who will vote against president Kibaki will only have a reason to replace him with Raila and nobody else since the rest of the candidates are products of Kanu. That is a presidency some voters may want to experiment one that represents a break from a kanu dynasty, just like voters in 2002 undertook a political experiment on how the country can be without president Moi and kanu in power. If voters develop such an attitude as to how different Kenya can be with a Raila presidency or how Kenya could be without a Kibaki presidency, then the Kibaki team needs to factor such in the campaigns...The much  anticipated disintegration of ODM-K  and the expected emergency of more coalitions should not  be reason enough of victory celebration for Narc-Kenya.If voting patterns of Kenyans; (which are tribal) are upheld by precedent then the looming fallout within ODM-K may end up affecting president Kibakis re-election bid negatively. The reality of Kenyans voting along tribal lines should not be downplayed. for that case,Uhuru Kenyatta’s or Kalonzo’s candidature may end up working negatively for president Kibaki than for Raila Odinga.Raila’s candidature may get a boost if Kalonzo or Uhuru contested on their own since the tribal arithmetic for president kibaki will be divided. With the support of Musalia Mudavadi and William Ruto, it will be an uphill task for president Kibaki.The supporters of the president riding on a notion that Raila is unelectable should know that that notion is no longer holding among many Kenyan voters apart from central province. It’s an alliance of Ruto, Mudavadi and Raila that may be more threatening than such alliance including all the current ODM luminaries. Emperor napoleon Bonaparte of the French empire once noted that what unites men is summarized as interest and fear, once people do not face a common fear and interest it automatically becomes difficult to unite. the scenario as per now is that the odm leadership face a common fear of being in opposition for the coming five years while their common interest of attaining power is threatened since all of them are keen on getting presidency even when the seat can only be occupied by one person at a time. Therefore room for uniting doesn’t exist due to this conflict of interest. For any Kenyans intending to vote change, individuals like hon. Kalonzo Musyoka do not represent any thing new; Raila becomes a strong candidate for he is the only one less associated with the kanu dynasty. Therefore for any significant difference in government, whether positive or negative, the electorate may favour Raila for he is believed to be the epitome of the struggle in Kenya having been the longest serving political detainee during the Kanu dictatorship. The much talked about development record achieved by the Kibaki administration should not be used as novocaine (a painkiller) to blind the president’s campaign team to think that the votes are going to be got just by Kenyans seeing the development projects. In self analysis it’s imperative for any leader willing to win an election to focus more on how to counter his weaknesses than just getting contented with the achieved strengths. The paradox exists within the incumbent for believing that Kenyans will selectively focus on the development projects, economic growth and give a blind eye to inflation rate, insecurity, allegations of high level corruption, tribalism and the gap between the rich and the poor. Most of the people in government seem to be slowing the campaign process with a great focus on the government’s strengths than weaknesses. The president needs to step up a spirited and intellectually run campaign for re-election since even the development facilities that have been realized during the Narc era are not uniformly distributed in the whole country. For example the development realized in Bungoma is not on the same scale as moyale.It must also be noted that the conditions under which the president was elected in 2002 are quite different from now. It’s therefore important that the president’s team focuses on the obvious weaknesses of the incumbent government. Inasmuch as the president is a committed nationalist none tribalistic a lot of tribalism is being practiced by junior officers in his government. This is likely to affect his government negatvely.its evident that these people who practice such vices do it in such a cunning way that the president happens not to knowe.with the establishment of the office of the ombudsman, the president will be able to get direct information from citizens. apart from psychological perception that unity of odm will bring them victory, there is little that Uhuru Kenyattas kanu supporters will take to ODM-K unless if its him who is running. That’s the same case with Kalonzo.that is why they have to fight hard to maintain their relevance at least within the media circles. For that reason Kenyans should be advised to vote for president kibaki for the hypocrisy of ODM-K leaders has been exposed through their inability to agree on one candidate. That is an indicator that none of them can be a worthy leader for this country. FWAMBA NC FWAMBA BOX 1176, BUNGOMA +254721779445