WHAT IF KIBAKI DOESNT SEEK RE-ELECTION-WILL RAILA BE THE PEOPLE'S CHOICE?:FWAMBA NC FWAMBA

According to Nicolo Machiavelli, The social and political world of the The Prince is monstrously unpredictable and volatile; only the most superhuman calculative mind can overcome this social and political volatility. He argues. Its now six months to election if the election timetable is upheld in precedence since the repeal of section 2a that lead to holding a general eletion under a multiparty democracy in Kenya. As many Kenyans are still evaluating the said development records under the leadership of president kibaki, the latest events within the political circles are indicative of a very speculative opinion on whether president Kibaki will be seeking re-eletion later this year. Apart from the president denying that he ever committed himself to serve one term and asking people to judge him by the development record  he is yet to convince his supporters that his re-eletion bid is a big issue within his line of ambitions. The presidents’ supporters seem to be more ambitious for him than himself. At the rate which his supposed opponents are moving, it’s foolhardy to imagine that campaign time is still too far and Kenyans will easily buy the development record theory. Going by latest events since the government spokesman told Kenyans to shun activists ‘with questionable characters’ masquerading to be campaigning for the president, many individuals or groups purporting to support the president are left guessing since the head of state either doesn’t wish to be re-elected or he is the proverbial dancer who doesn’t respond to drumbeats no matter how skilled the drum player is. The examples of these circumstances include the presidents turn down of Democratic Party chairmanship, and his imaginary distant involvement in Narc- Kenya activities. At sometime the vice president Hon. moody Awori confidently said that the president fully supports the Narc-Kenya initiative and the president campaigning for its pioneer members of parliament in a by-election. The campaigning for the party parliamentarian for Nakuru town then could only be translated to the sympathy to Hon.Mirugi Kariuki’s family and not necessarily for the love of Narc- Kenya as a party. the president has never authoritatively involved his efforts in building Narc Kenya apart from a few of his friends who would like him to run on its ticket due to the controversies involved if he decided to seek re-eletion on the Narc party which is now defunct considering that one of their component parties the LDP is fully in opposition.Narc-Kenya, the party on whose ticket the president is expected to seek re-election held elections recently while claiming that the party has no funds! as a result and poor management of the elections, the party had elections which were more of appointments that do not necessarily reflect the existence of officials whose popularity on the ground can help  the president in attaining enough grassroots support during the general election. While central province suspended grassroots elections, other parts of the country which claimed to have elections, no actual elections were ever carried out just like the Naivasha Member of Parliament had earlier predicted. At this juncture, Kenyans and president Kibaki supporters must start thinking of what to do incase the president decides that he wants to be a respected statesman like nelson Mandela by leaving power voluntarily. To do that the president only needs to leave a legacy of less talk and economic prosperity. Under the president, the government faces two main issues to deal with; the mungiki menace and the allegations of rampant practices of tribalism in public appointments. Apart from the two issues that currently look like a cancer in the government, the president’s performance record is above average and that is why if he contested; with a serious and well organized campaign he will win the second term. The political landscape is likely to undergo radical political changes and realignments incase the president decides not to run for the second and last term constitutionally. That will totally complicate the existing so called horses’ and donkeys’ race. Some donkeys will automatically become horses while some horses may become donkeys. The main political players and those who had suspended their ambitions for the 2012 race because of their support for president Kibaki may as well decide to make this their time. That automatically brings the frontrunners in bid for Narc-Kenya chairmanship into the field. Individuals like Prof.George Saitoti, Kipruto Kirwa.Dr.Mukhisa Kituyi, Kiraitu Murungi, amongst others will automatically become major players and possible candidates.Uhuru Kenyatta’s candidature on whatever ticket will obviously get a boost because of the tribal equation and the central province vote. This scenario will also become a battle of influence of individuals and not necessarily political parties. Without the president contesting, the ODM-Kenya’s intention of being together automatically ceases since their main and common agenda has been to defeat president Kibaki in the elections. Some of them who are facing corruption cases in court may through the ECK be barred from contesting according to the regulations thus they may be thrown to political oblivion if the electoral commission takes such a move. That will mean that fresh coalitions will be formed with some of the ODM-Kenya members supporting the Narc-Kenya presidential candidate, while some Narc-Kenya and ODM-K people will run on their own. The so called third force under Ngilu and Kombo may gain relevance too. In this scenario, it will be difficult too to tell if even the likes of Raila, Saitoti, Kituyi, Kalonzo, Ngilu, Kombo, or Uhuru will be able to become Kenya’s next president. As expected president Kibaki and former president Moi will have a big role to play. However going by the president’s way of doing things he may not necessarily support anyone aggressively. On the other hand, if he is set for re-election, then the president’s unpredictability may harm his campaigns.   FWAMBA NC FWAMBA Box 41046-00100 NAIROBI +254721779445